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deficits into commanding romney leads. the idea behind it is simple. all polls base the outcome on what pollsters believe the electorate will look like, how many democrats versus how many republicans they think will actually turn out. getting that partisan makeup wrong can tilt the predictions. the people that don't believe the polls say this time, pollsters think the 2012 electorate will look a lot like 2008 and this they say is wrong. notice i said this time. back in 2004, democrats complained that the polls which showed george w. bush leading were overestimating the number of republicans who would vote. they were wrong. the polls were right. now, in 2000 al gore said don't believe the polls. polls showed him losing narrowly. polls were right. in fact, it's hard to find an example of the polls on average getting it wrong unless you go back to 1948, when they predicted thomas dewey defeated president harry truman. cnn political contributor ari fleischer joins us. he's an occasional unpaid communications advisor for the ro
deficits into commanding romney leads. the idea behind it is simple. all polls base the outcome on what pollsters believe the electorate will look like, how many democrats versus how many republicans they think will actually turn out. getting that partisan makeup wrong can tilt the predictions. the people that don't believe the polls say this time, pollsters think the 2012 electorate will look a lot like 2008 and this they say is wrong. notice i said this time. back in 2004, democrats...
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the romney campaign, $86 million raised. the pro romney super pac, $41 million. and american crossroads, affiliate with karl rove, $58.7 million. so you can add that up and get a big number or say if karl rove doesn't like how mitt romney does tomorrow night, he could give a lot of that $60 million, the biggest chunk of change, to, i don't know, senate candidates, congressional candidates, and not romney. >> that's right, erin. there are a lot of republicans and democrats who are very closely watching what these outside groups -- and it's not just the super pacs we have the money for and the finances. but also these 5014 c nonprofit groups raising a ton more money, the karl rove gps, the koch brothers, americans for prosperity. and there is a feeling that if mitt romney starts to look like he can't win, that they will pull the plug on him, and start diverting the money that they otherwise would have spent on his campaign, on congressional campaigns, and that really underscores the difference between these sort of post citizens united elections where the power and
the romney campaign, $86 million raised. the pro romney super pac, $41 million. and american crossroads, affiliate with karl rove, $58.7 million. so you can add that up and get a big number or say if karl rove doesn't like how mitt romney does tomorrow night, he could give a lot of that $60 million, the biggest chunk of change, to, i don't know, senate candidates, congressional candidates, and not romney. >> that's right, erin. there are a lot of republicans and democrats who are very...
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romney? >> well, it was -- obviously it was a one-on-one conversation. i know a little about it. they talked about what prime minister netanyahu meant about red lines, what his views were on the current state of play with iran. governor romney also sought out the prime minister's views on developments in the arab world. there is this sense of an unraveling going on right now throughout the middle east in many capitals, poses a threat to the united states. it poses real threats to israel on its borders and he just wanted his state of play. understand this is a relationship, piers. prime minister netanyahu and governor romney go back a number of decades. they worked together in business when they were both graduates from business school. they've kept in touch over the years. so prime minister netanyahu is someone that the governor reaches out to from time to time just to get his perspectives on the region and he certainly felt that given what's going on right now, in addition to the iranian cri
romney? >> well, it was -- obviously it was a one-on-one conversation. i know a little about it. they talked about what prime minister netanyahu meant about red lines, what his views were on the current state of play with iran. governor romney also sought out the prime minister's views on developments in the arab world. there is this sense of an unraveling going on right now throughout the middle east in many capitals, poses a threat to the united states. it poses real threats to israel...
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romney has to do well, no doubt about it. the debate falls into the media of romney has to perform and if he he doesn't it is an excuse for another round of in my mind disgustingly biased pieces against mitt romney. i believe bill is exactly right when barack obama was challenged in the univision interview and he was challenged very hard. obama looked uncomfortable when he is really confronted with facts and simply worded questions. i think if mitt romney reminds people we have really 11.7% unemployment and not 8.1% that america's best days ca cannot e behind her, they have to be in front of her. i think having a moment of real leadership and maturity and contrasting that with the president who seems more comfort with ellen or the late night hosts than he is talking to the families of these insider attacks. i think romney has to be mature and forceful. yet the idea that it is all in the debate i think that is a little too convenient for the media. >> chris: juan talk about it but also is because we keep forgetting about obama
romney has to do well, no doubt about it. the debate falls into the media of romney has to perform and if he he doesn't it is an excuse for another round of in my mind disgustingly biased pieces against mitt romney. i believe bill is exactly right when barack obama was challenged in the univision interview and he was challenged very hard. obama looked uncomfortable when he is really confronted with facts and simply worded questions. i think if mitt romney reminds people we have really 11.7%...
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and paul ryan. >> to romney and ryan. >> to mitt romney and paul ryan. they have plans and ideas that i believe will work. >> greta: joining us our political panel, rick klein, michael crawley, and justin sink. rick? >> find me a voter for voted for mccain four years ago and now says obama. it's a small segment of the population. this is the kind of message. it's an invitation to the former obama voters, the one-time obama voters who may be supporting him right now, on the fence right now, to say join us on the other side, you don't have to hate the guy, that he's the wrong direction for the country, we're giving up on him, moving the other direction. it's a powerful message, something the romney campaign would have liked to tap into a few months ago. >> greta: michael? >> how are the people in the middle, willing to vote for either party, not strong partisan, how are they going to break at the end of the day? they could decide it. >> the romney party will break overwhelming against obama. if he hasn't closed the deal yet, they'll get the voters. the cau
and paul ryan. >> to romney and ryan. >> to mitt romney and paul ryan. they have plans and ideas that i believe will work. >> greta: joining us our political panel, rick klein, michael crawley, and justin sink. rick? >> find me a voter for voted for mccain four years ago and now says obama. it's a small segment of the population. this is the kind of message. it's an invitation to the former obama voters, the one-time obama voters who may be supporting him right now, on...
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romney among independents is winning by three points, so if romney's winning the independents and republicans, do you think in a battleground state like florida, he's nine points down? the answer is no. >> okay. that math doesn't actually work out because according to the florida poll, those who say they're most likely going to vote, 36% say they're democrats, 27% republicans and 33% independents, so as you can see, the math that karl rove laid out doesn't necessarily have to be so. let's bring in our panel here and talk about all of the polling here we do at cnn and how it works. cnn polls, one thing you may have heard is that the polls out there are assuming a higher turnout this election than last. a lot of people say that can't be so. there was so much passion and enthusiasm last time around. cnn polls do not assume any higher turnout, which is an important point of clarification. let's bring in roland martin from the democratic side and ron avalon. that has become a rallying cry. there have been a lot of carefully constructed polls put together by those on the right saying the polls assu
romney among independents is winning by three points, so if romney's winning the independents and republicans, do you think in a battleground state like florida, he's nine points down? the answer is no. >> okay. that math doesn't actually work out because according to the florida poll, those who say they're most likely going to vote, 36% say they're democrats, 27% republicans and 33% independents, so as you can see, the math that karl rove laid out doesn't necessarily have to be so. let's...
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romney: "it's time to stand up to the cheaters" vo: tough on china? not mitt romney. when a flood of chinese tires threatened a thousand american jobs... it was president obama who stood up to china and protected american workers. mitt romney attacked obama's decision... said standing up to china was "bad for the nation and our workers." how can mitt romney take on the cheaters... when he's taking their side? ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a stunning work of technology. introducing the entirely new lexus es. and the first-ever es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. and get outstanding deals with the travelocity fall hotel sale. you can save up to 40% on select hotels. so book your hotel now and save up to 40%. hurry, offer ends soon. book now at travelocity. >>> prisoners clash with guards at a dramatic jailbreak in northern iraq. lisa sylvester's monitoring that, some of the other top stories in "the situation room" right now. lisa, what happened? >> hi, wolf. thety of tikrit remains under lock down. they set off car bombs and overtook guards and stole the
romney: "it's time to stand up to the cheaters" vo: tough on china? not mitt romney. when a flood of chinese tires threatened a thousand american jobs... it was president obama who stood up to china and protected american workers. mitt romney attacked obama's decision... said standing up to china was "bad for the nation and our workers." how can mitt romney take on the cheaters... when he's taking their side? ♪ [ male announcer ] introducing a stunning work of technology....
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this is mitt romney live in wayne, left ofphiladelphia. this is at the valley rge military academy and college. let's listen in. >>one of our national hymns says it well, in my view. oh beautiful for heroes proved elf iberating strife who more eir country ved and mercy more than life. for all of youho serd in our military, would you please raise yr h, those also in the military today, please raise your hand d thanu. >> now, about a year ago i had the opportunity to speak at the cil in south carolina where al anoso militar academy was training yog people to consider miliry, andust like this group of cadets behind me, they didn't move when i told my jokes, so i learned not to worry about that. at that address that i gave there, i said a number of things that i thought were important. one was that this next century, the one we're now in, must be a american century, and by that i mean that america must continue to ld e wod and the ee world must continue to lead the entire world. there otdels out around the world wondering should we follow amer
this is mitt romney live in wayne, left ofphiladelphia. this is at the valley rge military academy and college. let's listen in. >>one of our national hymns says it well, in my view. oh beautiful for heroes proved elf iberating strife who more eir country ved and mercy more than life. for all of youho serd in our military, would you please raise yr h, those also in the military today, please raise your hand d thanu. >> now, about a year ago i had the opportunity to speak at the cil...
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. >> romney is a very good debater. he's practiced and practiced and practiced and practiced. >> the moderator and obama are going to come after him. >> romney is actually pretty good on his feet in debates. >> the big questions, can romney reset his campaign with a strong debate? or with early voting under way -- >> president obama. >> -- is it too late for a turnaround? >> four years from his last debate. >> you're wrong. >> will president obama be rusty? or, can he break the race wide open? we'll ask our headliners. new jersey governor chris christie and the president's senior adviser david plouffe. and our powerhouse roundtable. squaring off, former party chairs haley barbour and howard dean. plus, matthew dowd, donna brazile and maggie haberman of politico. >>> hello again. we're heading into the home stretch of this campaign. just 37 days before the final votes, with all eyes on this week's first debate. the candidates are hunkering down in debate camp. our guests are ready to weigh in on where the race stands. wh
. >> romney is a very good debater. he's practiced and practiced and practiced and practiced. >> the moderator and obama are going to come after him. >> romney is actually pretty good on his feet in debates. >> the big questions, can romney reset his campaign with a strong debate? or with early voting under way -- >> president obama. >> -- is it too late for a turnaround? >> four years from his last debate. >> you're wrong. >> will president...
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i don't want to vote for romney. but i really thought things would be better by now. >> real change takes more than one term. or even one president. i don't know if it will even happen in eight years. might take 12. frankly, i might be long dead. who here has a job? there we go. there we go. what do you do, sir? >> i'm a manager at burger king. >> and where were you four years ago, probably working the counter, right? >> i was a vice president for bank of america. >> oh, okay. the point is that today you're a manager at one of america's biggest companies. that's a success story. probably get free burgers, right? >> no one gets free burgers. actually, i had to fire a guy for eating one while eating on the clock. >> there you go. free brick. anyone else feel they're much better off than four years ago? yes, sir? what do you do? >> i don't have a job. i just won a lot of money in a lawsuit last year. >> i see. >> yeah. i was eating at a burger king and some guy just hit me with a brick. >> there you go! circle of life.
i don't want to vote for romney. but i really thought things would be better by now. >> real change takes more than one term. or even one president. i don't know if it will even happen in eight years. might take 12. frankly, i might be long dead. who here has a job? there we go. there we go. what do you do, sir? >> i'm a manager at burger king. >> and where were you four years ago, probably working the counter, right? >> i was a vice president for bank of america....
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he is quite close to mitt romney. he knew him before -- >> how about the fact, i was going to say, how about the fact today he will speak by phone to both. a world leader doing that -- >> that's a danger for him, i have known him a long time. he is always moving forward. the danger is that he can involve himself too demonstrably in the american election this time with the kinds of statements he has been making, positions he has been taking. he is imposing himself on what the american people need to decide for themselves. >> take it in the reverse, how often, you could say in not so friendly democracies, america over the years may have gotten involved in leadership elections, but in some of the most friendly allies, how often do american presidents do that? >> they generally stand back, let the american people make a decision. in fact, at this time which is a volatile time in that part of the world, what is also striking to me is that this gives president obama cover to some degree, not just on the iran issue. >> take
he is quite close to mitt romney. he knew him before -- >> how about the fact, i was going to say, how about the fact today he will speak by phone to both. a world leader doing that -- >> that's a danger for him, i have known him a long time. he is always moving forward. the danger is that he can involve himself too demonstrably in the american election this time with the kinds of statements he has been making, positions he has been taking. he is imposing himself on what the...
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romney: "it's time to stand up to the cheaters" vo: tough on china? not mitt romney. when a flood of chinese tires threatened a thousand american jobs... it was president obama who stood up to china and protected american workers. mitt romney attacked obama's decision... said standing up to china was "bad for the nation and our workers." how can mitt romney take on the cheaters... when he's taking their side? his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's overhaul starts with more pain. more pills. triple checking hydraulics. the evening brings more pain. so, back to more pills. almost done, when... hang on. stan's doctor recommended aleve. it can keep pain away all day with fewer pills than tylenol. this is rudy. who switched to aleve. and two pills for a day free of pain. ♪ and get the all day pain relief of aleve in liquid gels. and sounds vying for your attention. so we invented a warning you can feel. introducing the all-new cadillac xts. available with a patented safety alert seat. when there's danger you might not see, you're warned by a p
romney: "it's time to stand up to the cheaters" vo: tough on china? not mitt romney. when a flood of chinese tires threatened a thousand american jobs... it was president obama who stood up to china and protected american workers. mitt romney attacked obama's decision... said standing up to china was "bad for the nation and our workers." how can mitt romney take on the cheaters... when he's taking their side? his morning starts with arthritis pain. and two pills. afternoon's...
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certainly not mitt romney. we've got people stationed, men and women, stationed in afghanistan and they're not talking about the war. you did a great segment on that last night. >> at least a long segment. 68 -- >> for good reasons. >> 68,000 americans who are really incredibly talented, incredible resources for our country, people in the prime of their lives risking their lives every day right now and in 2004, in that presidential campaign, we were at war and george w. bush and john kerry fought it out every day about the war. in 2008 we were at war, and barack obama and john mccain fought it out every day in that war. this week when the financial crisis was absolutely on fire, at that debate, they were talking about the wars. this year, president obama does bring it up, he does bring it up at most of his stump speeches, how he explains what he has done and planning on doing talking about the two wars. he doesn't have to say much more because he's speaking to an empty room. the romney campaign has no identifia
certainly not mitt romney. we've got people stationed, men and women, stationed in afghanistan and they're not talking about the war. you did a great segment on that last night. >> at least a long segment. 68 -- >> for good reasons. >> 68,000 americans who are really incredibly talented, incredible resources for our country, people in the prime of their lives risking their lives every day right now and in 2004, in that presidential campaign, we were at war and george w. bush...
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pounding the daylights out of him, and romney's or -- >> sean: i don't get it. i don't know why we're not seeing more pounding by him. do you think it starts next wednesday in colorado? >> sometimes he says positive things about obama. he cares about the middle class. no, barack obama doesn't care about the middle class. if he cared about the middle class, he wouldn't be putting through obama tax hikes on people in the middle class. >> let me just say that next wednesday night, this is it. they need to turn this campaign around. debates are vehicles of challengers. this is his chance to do this. >> sean: we need the mitt romney that showed up after losing south carolina, where he went into that state up double digits, and came out winning by double digits -- i'm sorry -- lost by double digits, then went to florida and had two debates with newt, that's the romney i want. >> the one-on-one debate forum is not necessarily president obama's best either. they've been after him for $700 million on character. the american people get 90 minutes to see whether or not tha
pounding the daylights out of him, and romney's or -- >> sean: i don't get it. i don't know why we're not seeing more pounding by him. do you think it starts next wednesday in colorado? >> sometimes he says positive things about obama. he cares about the middle class. no, barack obama doesn't care about the middle class. if he cared about the middle class, he wouldn't be putting through obama tax hikes on people in the middle class. >> let me just say that next wednesday...
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both romney and mitt romney speaking at fundraisers today. romney held one earlier in philadelphia. the president has one later in washington. at a campaign rally last hour at a military acted any many pennsylvania romney hammered away at the president over the economy. >> i have to tell you that i don't know how a single person who goes to this institution could consider voting for the incumbent for president. i say that for this reason. if they want to go in the military, why, he is planning on cutting our military by about $1 trillion over the next decade. if they want to go on to either get a job directly or go on to a four-year college and come out with a gee, you know that 50% of kids coming out of college today can't find a job or a college level job. on both fronts, this president's policies have not worked for the young people of america. >> their first debate happens on wednesday. the romney team is downplaying expectations. romney advisor beth myers distributes this memo explaining why the president is probably going to do better. she says that president obama is one of t
both romney and mitt romney speaking at fundraisers today. romney held one earlier in philadelphia. the president has one later in washington. at a campaign rally last hour at a military acted any many pennsylvania romney hammered away at the president over the economy. >> i have to tell you that i don't know how a single person who goes to this institution could consider voting for the incumbent for president. i say that for this reason. if they want to go in the military, why, he is...
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romn romney. would they drop some of the medicaid programs, would you cover fewer people and say there will be less federal dollars going to it. those are the two fewer differences. >> interesting, mitt romney at times appears to be softening on obama-care and embracing his plan in massachusetts strongly and people are kind of confused about that. has his posture changed? shifted? what? >> that's fair. i've talked to governor romney about this in this past. interesting certainly one of the things he said about massachusetts in order to get universal health care done one of the benefits patients wouldn't have to go to the emergency room where it's the most expensive to get health care, you probably heard the other day, americans do have health care, they can go to an emergency room. that was clearly a bit of shift and tough one to explain. overall, think he's still -- if you ask him, he still believes people should get health care insurance. i think the strategy how he wants to get there is very di
romn romney. would they drop some of the medicaid programs, would you cover fewer people and say there will be less federal dollars going to it. those are the two fewer differences. >> interesting, mitt romney at times appears to be softening on obama-care and embracing his plan in massachusetts strongly and people are kind of confused about that. has his posture changed? shifted? what? >> that's fair. i've talked to governor romney about this in this past. interesting certainly one...
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, that was mitt romney saying that about mitt romney. so he should try to focus as much and pivot to talk about the 100% and be specific. because that is what has been missing from what his plans are versus what the president's are for the middle class. >> and matt, on the subject of likability, i'm sure that governor romney's going to -- i mean, i've heard it said that the president isn't used to be challenged anymore and that might put him on the defensive and all this likability stuff will go by the wayside because president obama will get snippy. >> well, i don't think, barack obama is a very controlled political type. he knows what to do when the pressure is on. we've seen in the last few weeks. i would say this. i started the whole career at 30 something years plus ago in political debate. i would look for what we call a spring board. and that is to take the things they're talking about all are in the past. if i remember mitt romney, i would move this into the future, the impact of the legislation we've seen and what impact it will
, that was mitt romney saying that about mitt romney. so he should try to focus as much and pivot to talk about the 100% and be specific. because that is what has been missing from what his plans are versus what the president's are for the middle class. >> and matt, on the subject of likability, i'm sure that governor romney's going to -- i mean, i've heard it said that the president isn't used to be challenged anymore and that might put him on the defensive and all this likability stuff...
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have you been able to discern any romney doctrine? >> they see an opening--for example, what this has done is brought foreign policy front and center into the presidential campaign. i think romney is trying to put the president on the defensive. that will give some perhaps glancing blows in the upcoming debate but if he wants to move aggressively to talk about substantive foreign policy, he's moving into an area that the president believes he's stronger and foreign policy is one of those areas where the incumbent has greater advantages and we will a he hear it in the upcoming debates. g.m. is alive and obama that will work to the disadvantage of romney. he wants to talk about the economy, which i think is what he sees as the administration's weakenings. the more time he spends on foreign policy it takes him away from his core message. >> eliot: the issue of iran and the bomb that was in the news during the u.n. general assembly meeting, where are we on that. the president seems to be inching towards a demonstration towards a lack of p
have you been able to discern any romney doctrine? >> they see an opening--for example, what this has done is brought foreign policy front and center into the presidential campaign. i think romney is trying to put the president on the defensive. that will give some perhaps glancing blows in the upcoming debate but if he wants to move aggressively to talk about substantive foreign policy, he's moving into an area that the president believes he's stronger and foreign policy is one of those...
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how exactly will romney counter the idea that he is awkward and not normal? >> mr. romney's team concluded the debates are about creating moments, the quick series of zingers he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since august. >> jon: they equipped him with zingers. >> and you know what? the best zingers are two ones you practice for two months. >> a priest and a rabbi walk into a bar. it is a bar for homosexuals. the priest and the rabbi fall in love and get married because of barack obama! zing! >> i will tell you this, people. i would not (bleep) barack obama's economy with the (bleep). zing! >> zing! >> the candidates are preparing for wednesday's debate we go to senior correspondent aasif mandvi. >> you are with the romney camp, how is he doing? >> he is prepping the best he can, jon, but you hate to see an uphill battle like this, this is the president, the greatest or for this, orator this country has seen since lincoln. >> like i mean, mitt romney, talk about brilliant two, harvard degrees, the guy has never even lost an argument, he is no slouch
how exactly will romney counter the idea that he is awkward and not normal? >> mr. romney's team concluded the debates are about creating moments, the quick series of zingers he has memorized and has been practicing on aides since august. >> jon: they equipped him with zingers. >> and you know what? the best zingers are two ones you practice for two months. >> a priest and a rabbi walk into a bar. it is a bar for homosexuals. the priest and the rabbi fall in love and get...